AI Predicts Potential Candidates for the Next Pope as Conclave Approaches
As the College of Cardinals gets ready to gather for the papal conclave starting on May 7, AI chatbots such as ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok-2 were asked to predict who might emerge as the next pope. While the conclave itself remains confidential and closed off to the public, AI responses indicate a few top contenders based on factors such as leadership experience, global representation, and ongoing priorities within the Church.
The Leading Candidate: Pietro Parolin
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State since 2013, is widely regarded as the frontrunner according to AI models. Parolin is often described as the “deputy pope,” and his extensive experience in international diplomacy, particularly his involvement in Middle East relations, makes him a key figure in the Church’s leadership. As a candidate for continuity, Parolin appeals to those who seek stability within the papacy. However, his more conservative stance on social issues has made him a point of contention for some progressive members of the Church. AI estimates his chances of being elected range from 30% to 31%.
The Strong Contender: Luis Tagle
Another prominent candidate highlighted by AI models is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines. Often referred to as the “Asian Francis” for his progressive stance on social justice and advocacy for marginalized communities, Tagle is seen as a strong contender for the papacy. He is especially appealing to those in the Church who are looking for reform and representation of the growing Catholic community in Asia. AI suggests that his chances of being elected stand at around 22% to 35%, depending on whether the cardinals continue Pope Francis’s legacy of reform.
Possible Compromise Candidates
If the conclave reaches an impasse, AI suggests the cardinals may opt for a compromise candidate. Figures like Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline from France and Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa from Italy are considered strong contenders for this role. Aveline’s work in fostering interfaith dialogue and Pizzaballa’s reputation for being ideologically balanced and globally minded make them appealing choices for a unifying candidate. Other potential compromise figures include Jean-Claude Hollerich from Luxembourg and Cristobal Lopez Romero from Spain, as pointed out by Grok-2.
The Outliers: Mario Grech and Matteo Zuppi
Some AI models also mention less likely candidates such as Cardinal Mario Grech from Malta and Cardinal Matteo Zuppi from Italy. Though their chances are smaller, they remain in the conversation due to their ability to foster balance within the Church. Zuppi, known for his neutral stance, could appeal to both reformers and conservatives, making him a potential compromise candidate.
Global Representation and the Importance of the Global South
AI models, including DeepSeek, have also stressed the importance of representing the Church’s growing influence in the Global South. Candidates like Cardinal Luis Tagle, Dieudonné Nzapalainga from the Central African Republic, and Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from the Democratic Republic of Congo are seen as key figures who could bring regional representation to the forefront of the papal election.
Unpredictability of the Conclave
Despite these predictions, AI models emphasize that the conclave remains an unpredictable process. Historically, papal elections have often resulted in surprising outcomes, and the final decision depends on the deliberations of the College of Cardinals. As AI models have pointed out, the conclave could very well surprise both analysts and the faithful alike, making it impossible to definitively predict who will become the next pope.
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